Probably = Probability

Working with probability the last two weeks has been a lot of fun!
We have been flipping quarters, rolling dice, and shuffling cards.
1) Flipping a quarter. There are only two things that can happen, heads or tails.  That seems simple enough. Last year I had 5th graders flip a quarter 5,000 times.  We ended up with 2,495 heads and 2,505 tails. Only 5 away from perfect probability.  This week we have seen some funny things happen. As a demonstration, I will flip the quarter 10 times.  Sometimes I go 5 and 5, other times 6 and 4. One time I flipped 8 heads and 2 tails.... but why?
2) Rolling a die. This has been a lot of fun. For some reason, elementary students (mine anyway) LOVE to roll dice! Probability? 1 out of 6. We haven't had a lot of crazy things happen with the die, other than I watched a 3rd grader go 4 for 4 on guessing the right number! How?
3) Shuffling cards. We have two games we play with this. The first one we try to guess if it will be red or black (1/2 probability...same as the coin). The other game is to try and guess the number (A, 2-10, J, Q, K....1/13 probability) The red or black game is fun, but the guess the number game is really interesting. It goes back to my post about "PREPARING TO FAIL." Most students understand the 1/13 chance of getting the right answer and are okay when they get it wrong. Other students are not and it ruins their entire day. Trying to manage expectations is an interesting animal with a 6 year old.

If you would like to play, you can check out the handouts here: Probability Handout

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